Key Takeaways

The ARB token of Arbitrum is under heavy selling pressure.
The key resistance level of ARB is $0.646 and the next higher ones are at $0.7931, $0.921, and $1.1634.
On-chain activities have shown realizing profit activities from large funds, whales, smart money wallets, etc.

The Arbitrum token – ARB has significantly increased after the ETH$4.477,31 token has shown some signs of reaching a new ATH. As a Layer 2 token being affected by the Ethereum money flow, the ARB token is also gaining its attention. Take a look at ARB token technical analysis and on-chain activities.

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ARB Token Technical Analysis

ARB$0,511 is currently in an uptrend and could continue pumping toward the resistance level at $0.646. The key resistance for ARB is $0.646; if a weekly candle closes above this level, the price may extend its rally toward higher resistances at $0.7931, $0.921, and $1.1634.

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If ARB fails to break the key resistance at $0.646, it could dump back to test the support levels at $0.5444, $0.4654, and $0.375. It even has the possibility of sweeping down to the previous low at $0.2678. This key level—$0.2678—is considered the key support for the current uptrend, and if this level breaks, ARB’s bullish structure will fail, potentially leading to a new low.

Source: TradingView

ARB On-chain Review

From an on-chain perspective, selling pressure is evident. Wallet 0xfb4e74450681694e2D2C56Bbb4B546239d1AE1e0, identified as Smart Money, deposited 6 million ARB (about $2.85M) to Binance after accumulating at around $0.388 within just four days (August 06 – August 11). It implied a typical profit-taking signal from experienced investors.

Source: Smart Wallet

At the same time, the activity of the Arbitrum DAO Treasury has raised concerns about CEX distribution risk. In the past, large token transfers routed through intermediary wallets like Wintermute and GSR have triggered heavy sell pressure.

Arbitrum Distribution

This event occurred on February 17 and February 18, 2025, coinciding with an approximately 50% price drop from $0.50 to $0.25.

The ARB token price drop event

Recent treasury transfers into intermediary wallets in April, May, and August 2025 raised the same question again about whether they are posing risks of future CEX distribution.

Wallet of Arbitrum DAO

Recent treasury transfers (no distribution yet):

Apr 7, 2025: 30M ARB (worth $7.39M) → 0x3842…e05
May 27, 2025: 400K ARB (worth $155.5K) → 0x9Cfc…b635
Aug 08 : 39M $ARB (worth ~$18.05M) → 0x08cc…3441

Wintermute Deposit

Notably, wallets previously linked to market makers such as Wintermute and GSR have resumed deposit activities. In which tens of millions of ARB were deposited by Wintermute addresses on August 18. One day after, there are 16.09 million ARB tokens deposited into the Coinbase exchange through wallet 0x3964128E13e05d4A672b4B45a1a96A2D56C27eFB.

DeFiance Capital

In addition, a team wallet directly deposited 10 million ARB into Coinbase, raising red flags about potential team-led distribution. Institutional flows also add to the pressure. Anchorage Digital (0x1190…fA9) sent 4.848M ARB (valued at $2.54M) to 0xF436…9BC2, which later deposited a total of 5.899M ARB to CEX on August 15. The wallet marked as Defiance Capital (0x0d32…5fa2) sold 1.093M ARB tokens received via vesting (approximately $555K) on August 18.

ARB Token Price Prediction

Overall, both technical and on-chain signals point to the fact that the ARB token is facing persistent sell-side pressure from multiple fronts. The Smart Money wallets are realizing their profits after a long time of holding. DAO Treasury transferring activities are signaling potential future sell pressure.

Other market makers and funds, such as Defiance Capital, as well as team wallets and custodian wallet movements, are all heading to CEX. Furthermore, the CEX netflow also confirms that no sustained accumulation has taken place after the ETH token has shown a bullish signal.

Combining the technical analysis and on-chain activities tracked, we could clearly see the sustainability of ARB’s uptrend currently depends heavily on whether it can decisively break through the 0.646 resistance. If it fails, the risk of a deeper correction is inevitably high, with a good chance of happening in the following months.

Arbitrum Blockchain Recent Big Updates

Arbitrum Protocol Major Upgrade

In June 2025, the Arbitrum protocol officially announced a major upgrade, called Arbitrum’s ArbOS 40 Callisto. The purpose of this event is to integrate with the upcoming Pectra upgrade of the Ethereum network, focusing on enhancing Layer 2 scaling solutions.

We could say that Arbitrum’s ArbOS 40 Callisto will lay a firm foundation for the protocol infrastructure, stabilize the network, and facilitating account abstraction.

Ecosystem Expansion

According to data from Dune, Arbitrum’s total value secured crossed $20 billion in August 2025. At the same time, Arbitrum also keeps a constant number of active developers and a strong DeFi ecosystem. The Foundation also launched a grant funding of 514000 ARB tokens supporting developers to build mini-apps.

In July, the Boros protocol, a yield trading platform from Pendle, integrated with Arbitrum. Boros allows users to trade on-chain assets. Some of the most traded are BTC/ETH funding rates. After this integration, the TVL of Arbitrum surged to $8.3 billion. As a butterfly effect, the PENDLE token also pumped nearly 45% in 48 hours after this partnership.

Token Buyback and Burn Program

One of the most bullish factors that drives the ARB token price is the token buyback and burn program. Arbitrum announced an important proposal for a structured token-burning plan as a strategic move in tokenomics. The first phase will be executed in early August.